Around a quarter of firms listed on the S&P 500 would have invested in Bitcoin by 2030, with treasury managers fearing they could lose their jobs if they missed out on potential Bitcoin gains, a partner at a tech-focused financial advisory firm said.

“I anticipate that by 2030, a quarter of the S&P 500 will have BTC somewhere on their balance sheets as a long-term asset,” Elliot Chun, a partner at Architect Partners, said in a March 28 blog.

Chun said this shift will be driven by treasury managers feeling compelled to at least experiment with Bitcoin (BTC).

“If you tried it and it worked, you’re a genius. If you tried it and it didn’t work, you at least tried. But if you didn’t try and have no good reason, your job may be at risk.”

Strategy (MSTR) is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder of all 89 public-traded firms that currently have Bitcoin on their balance sheets, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET.

One more firm could be added to the list after GameStop’s $1.3 billion convertible notes offering on March 26, which the firm intends to use to buy its first batch of Bitcoin.

Tesla and Block are the only S&P 500-listed firms that hold Bitcoin — meaning at least another 123 S&P 500 firms would need to invest in Bitcoin by 2030 for Chun’s prediction to be correct.

Tech investors and execs expect Bitcoin to keep rising

Bitcoin could soar to the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range or even higher by 2030, according to the likes of ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Block CEO Jack Dorsey.

Meanwhile, firms adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies have seen a positive impact on their share prices. Strategy, whose stock has surged over 2,000% since its first Bitcoin investment on Aug. 20, 2020 — massively outperforming Bitcoin (781.1%) and S&P 500 (64.8%) over that stretch.

But there’s a big difference between firms that adopt Bitcoin for treasury diversification and risk management and those that restructure their entire business models to become the Bitcoin treasury leader within their industries, Chun said.

“Companies who are implementing this strategy in hopes of replicating MSTR’s performance are positioning for disappointment,” said Chun, who referred to Strategy as a “one-of-one.”

MSTR initially provided US asset managers exposure to Bitcoin at a time when they couldn’t hold Bitcoin directly. That changed when the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a handful of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications on Jan. 10, 2024.

Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold price hits a record $3K

Despite the increased adoption, Bitcoin used as a treasury asset remains an “unproven strategy” for firms hoping it will hedge against US dollar and fiat inflation or diversify their treasury for risk management purposes, Chun said.

That said, Bitcoin is still a more flexible treasury asset than gold, according to Chun, who pointed out the challenges in storing and moving gold bars.

On the other hand, Bitcoin is a digital commodity that is GAAP-recognized as a tangible asset with a fungible and liquid profile, he added.

Earlier this month, crypto asset manager Bitwise launched Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF on March 11, which seeks to track companies with at least 1,000 Bitcoin in their corporate treasuries.

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Bitcoin looks set for a bearish open to mark the last trading day of March and possibly the weakest Q1 performance since 2018. 

Crypto and stock traders’ anxiety over US President Donald Trump’s fresh wave of 25% tariffs on cars imported to the US, the threat of tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry is clearly reflected in BTC’s current downside. Trump’s frequent references to April 2 being “Liberation Day” (the day when an apparent number for “reciprocal tariffs” will be assigned to various countries) also has shaken traders’ confidence. 

At the time of publishing, stock futures have already slipped into the red, with the DOW futures shedding 206 points and the S&P 500 futures down 0.56%. As expected, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price moved in tandem with equities markets, slipping to $81,656 on March 30 and locking in a 7th consecutive day of lower lows. 

After a tumultuous quarter, equities markets look set to close down for the month, with the S&P 500 down 6.3% and the Nasdaq and DOW each registering 8.1% and 5.2% respective losses. 

Bitcoin’s steady decline is a combination of weak demand in spot markets and clear derisking from traders who are reluctant to open fresh positions in BTC’s futures markets. 

Last week’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showed a higher-than-anticipated uptick in inflation, and March consumer confidence data from the Conference Board showed the monthly confidence index — a metric that reflects respondents’ expectation for income, business and job prospects — at a 12-year low. 

Related: Bitcoin bottom ‘likely’ at $80K, opening door for TON, CRO, MNT and RENDER to rally

Recession odds also continue to rise, with a recent report from Goldman Sachs raising the 12-month recession probability from their previous 20% to 35%. In the report, Goldman Sachs’ analysts said, 

“The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth beeline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”    

Does Bitcoin’s downside have a silver lining? 

While many crypto analysts have publicly revised their bullish six-figure-plus BTC price estimates and now forecast a revisit to Bitcoin’s swing lows in the mid $70,000 range, institutional investors continue to buy, and net inflows to the spot ETFs remain positive. 

On March 30, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor took to X and posted his famous orange dots Bitcoin chart, saying, 

“Needs even more Orange.” 

Data from CryptoQuant also shows Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses continuing to rise throughout the month. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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