Sam Trabucco left Alameda Research months before the FTX collapse and kept his head down — probably on his yacht Soak My Deck.
This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.
What Africa needs to do to become a major AI player
Africa is still early in the process of adopting AI technologies. But researchers say the continent is uniquely hospitable to it for several reasons, including a relatively young and increasingly well-educated population, a rapidly growing ecosystem of AI startups, and lots of potential consumers.
However, ambitious efforts to develop AI tools that answer the needs of Africans face numerous hurdles. The biggest are inadequate funding and poor infrastructure. Limited internet access and a scarcity of domestic data centers also mean that developers might not be able to deploy cutting-edge AI capabilities. Complicating this further is a lack of overarching policies or strategies for harnessing AI’s immense benefits—and regulating its downsides.
Taken together, researchers worry, these issues will hold Africa’s AI sector back and hamper its efforts to pave its own pathway in the global AI race. Read the full story.
—Abdullahi Tsanni
Science and technology stories in the age of Trump
—Mat Honan
I’ve spent most of this year being pretty convinced that Donald Trump would be the 47th president of the United States. Even so, like most people, I was completely surprised by the scope of his victory. This level of victory will certainly provide the political capital to usher in a broad sweep of policy changes.
Some of these changes will be well outside our lane as a publication. But very many of President-elect Trump’s stated policy goals will have direct impacts on science and technology.
So I thought I would share some of my remarks from our edit meeting on Wednesday morning, when we woke up to find out that the world had indeed changed. Read the full story.
This story is from The Debrief, the weekly newsletter from our editor in chief Mat Honan. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Friday.
The must-reads
I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.
1 Canada has recorded its first known bird flu case in a human
Officials are investigating how the teenager was exposed to the virus. (NPR)
+ Canada insists that the risk to the public remains low. (Reuters)
+ Why virologists are getting increasingly nervous about bird flu. (MIT Technology Review)
2 How MAGA became a rallying call for young men
The Republicans’ online strategy tapped into the desires of disillusioned Gen Z men. (WP $)
+ Elon Musk is assembling a list of favorable would-be Trump advisors. (FT $)
3 Trump’s victory is a win for the US defense industry
Palmer Luckey’s Anduril is anticipating a lucrative next four years. (Insider $)
+ Here’s what Luckey has to say about the Pentagon’s future of mixed reality. (MIT Technology Review)
+ Traditional weapons are being given AI upgrades. (Wired $)
4 This year is highly likely to be the hottest on record
This week’s Cop29 climate summit will thrash out future policies. (The Guardian)
+ A little-understood contributor to the weather? Microplastics. (Wired $)
+ Trump’s win is a tragic loss for climate progress. (MIT Technology Review)
5 Ukraine is scrambling to repair its power stations
Workers are dismantling plants to repair other stations hit by Russian attacks. (WSJ $)
+ Meet the radio-obsessed civilian shaping Ukraine’s drone defense. (MIT Technology Review)
6 We need better ways to evaluate LLMs
Tech giants are coming up with better methods of measuring these systems. (FT $)
+ The improvements in the tech behind ChatGPT appear to be slowing. (The Information $)
+ AI hype is built on high test scores. Those tests are flawed. (MIT Technology Review)
7 FTX is suing crypto exchange Binance
It claims Sam Bankman-Fried fraudulently transferred close to $1.8 billion to Binance in 2021. (Bloomberg $)
+ Meanwhile, bitcoin is surging to new record heights. (Reuters)
8 What we know about tech and loneliness
While there’s little evidence tech directly makes us lonely, there’s a strong correlation between the two. (NYT $)
9 What’s next for space policy in the US
If one person’s interested in the cosmos, it’s Elon Musk. (Ars Technica)
10 Could you save the Earth from a killer asteroid?
It’s a game that’s part strategy, part luck. (New Scientist $)
+ Earth is probably safe from a killer asteroid for 1,000 years. (MIT Technology Review)
Quote of the day
“‘Conflict of interest’ seems rather quaint.”
—Gita Johar, a professor at Columbia Business School, tells the Guardian about Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s openly transactional relationship.
The big story
Quartz, cobalt, and the waste we leave behind
May 2024
It is easy to convince ourselves that we now live in a dematerialized ethereal world, ruled by digital startups, artificial intelligence, and financial services.
Yet there is little evidence that we have decoupled our economy from its churning hunger for resources. We are still reliant on the products of geological processes like coal and quartz, a mineral that’s a rich source of the silicon used to build computer chips, to power our world.
Three recent books aim to reconnect readers with the physical reality that underpins the global economy. Each one fills in dark secrets about the places, processes, and lived realities that make the economy tick, and reveals just how tragic a toll the materials we rely on take for humans and the environment. Read the full story.
—Matthew Ponsford
We can still have nice things
A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or tweet ’em at me.)
+ Oscars buzz has already begun, and this year’s early contenders are an interesting bunch.
+ This sweet art project shows how toys age with love
+ Who doesn’t love pretzels? Here’s how to make sure they end up with the perfect fluffy interior and a glossy, chewy crust.
+ These images of plankton are really quite something.
Rather than analyzing the news this week, I thought I’d lift the hood a bit on how we make it.
I’ve spent most of this year being pretty convinced that Donald Trump would be the 47th president of the United States. Even so, like most people, I was completely surprised by the scope of his victory. By taking the lion’s share not just in the Electoral College but also the popular vote, coupled with the wins in the Senate (and, as I write this, seemingly the House) and ongoing control of the courts, Trump has done far more than simply eke out a win. This level of victory will certainly provide the political capital to usher in a broad sweep of policy changes.
Some of these changes will be well outside our lane as a publication. But very many of President-elect Trump’s stated policy goals will have direct impacts on science and technology. Some of the proposed changes would have profound effects on the industries and innovations we’ve covered regularly, and for years. When he talks about his intention to end EV subsidies, hit the brakes on FTC enforcement actions on Big Tech, ease the rules on crypto, or impose a 60 percent tariff on goods from China, these are squarely in our strike zone and we would be remiss not to explore the policies and their impact in detail.
And so I thought I would share some of my remarks from our edit meeting on Wednesday morning, when we woke up to find out that the world had indeed changed. I think it’s helpful for our audience if we are transparent and upfront about how we intend to operate, especially over the next several months that will likely be, well, chaotic.
This is a moment when our jobs are more important than ever. There will be so much noise and heat out there in the coming weeks and months, and maybe even years. The next six months in particular will be a confusing time for a lot of people. We should strive to be the signal in that noise.
We have extremely important stories to write about the role of science and technology in the new administration. There are obvious stories for us to take on in regards to climate, energy, vaccines, women’s health, IVF, food safety, chips, China, and I’m sure a lot more, that people are going to have all sorts of questions about. Let’s start by making a list of questions we have ourselves. Some of the people and technologies we cover will be ascendant in all sorts of ways. We should interrogate that power. It’s important that we take care in those stories not to be speculative or presumptive. To always have the facts buttoned up. To speak the truth and be unassailable in doing so.
Do we drop everything and only cover this? No. But it will certainly be a massive story that affects nearly all others.
This election will be a transformative moment for society and the world. Trump didn’t just win, he won a mandate. And he’s going to change the country and the global order as a result. The next few weeks will see so much speculation as to what it all means. So much fear, uncertainty, and doubt. There is an enormous amount of bullshit headed down the line. People will be hungry for sources they can trust. We should be there for that. Let’s leverage our credibility, not squander it.
We are not the resistance. We just want to tell the truth. So let’s take a breath, and then go out there and do our jobs.
I like to tell our reporters and editors that our coverage should be free from either hype or cynicism. I think that’s especially true now.
I’m also very interested to hear from our readers: What questions do you have? What are the policy changes or staffing decisions you are curious about? Please drop me a line at mat.honan@technologyreview.com I’m eager to hear from you.
If someone forwarded you this edition of The Debrief, you can subscribe here.
Now read the rest of The Debrief
The News
Palmer Luckey, who was ousted from Facebook over his support for the last Trump administration and went into defense contracting, is poised to grow in influence under a second administration. He recently talked to MIT Technology Review about how the Pentagon is using mixed reality.
• What does Donald Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk mean for the global EV industry?
• The Biden administration was perceived as hostile to crypto. The industry can likely expect friendlier waters under Trump
• Some counter-programming: Life seeking robots could punch through Europa’s icy surface
• And for one more big take that’s not related to the election: AI vs quantum. AI could solve some of the most interesting scientific problems before big quantum computers become a reality
The Chat
Every week I’ll talk to one of MIT Technology Review’s reporters or editors to find out more about what they’ve been working on. This week, I chatted with Melissa Heikkilä about her story on how ChatGPT search paves the way for AI agents.
Mat: Melissa, OpenAI rolled out web search for ChatGPT last week. It seems pretty cool. But you got at a really interesting bigger picture point about it paving the way for agents. What does that mean?
Melissa: Microsoft tried to chip away at Google’s search monopoly with Bing, and that didn’t really work. It’s unlikely OpenAI will be able to make much difference either. Their best bet is try to get users used to a new way of finding information and browsing the web through virtual assistants that can do complex tasks. Tech companies call these agents. ChatGPT’s usefulness is limited by the fact that it can’t access the internet and doesn’t have the most up to date information. By integrating a really powerful search engine into the chatbot, suddenly you have a tool that can help you plan things and find information in a far more comprehensive and immersive way than traditional search, and this is a key feature of the next generation of AI assistants.
Mat: What will agents be able to do?
Melissa: AI agents can complete complex tasks autonomously and the vision is that they will work as a human assistant would — book your flights, reschedule your meetings, help with research, you name it. But I wouldn’t get too excited yet. The cutting-edge of AI tech can retrieve information and generate stuff, but it still lacks the reasoning and long-term planning skills to be really useful. AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude also can’t interact with computer interfaces, like clicking at stuff, very well. They also need to become a lot more reliable and stop making stuff up, which is still a massive problem with AI. So we’re still a long way away from the vision becoming reality! I wrote an explainer on agents a little while ago with more details.
Mat: Is search as we know it going away? Are we just moving to a world of agents that not only answer questions but also accomplish tasks?
Melissa: It’s really hard to say. We are so used to using online search, and it’s surprisingly hard to change people’s behaviors. Unless agents become super reliable and powerful, I don’t think search is going to go away.
Mat: By the way, I know you are in the UK. Did you hear we had an election over here in the US?
Melissa: LOL
The Recommendation
I’m just back from a family vacation in New York City, where I was in town to run the marathon. (I get to point this out for like one or two more weeks before the bragging gets tedious, I think.) While there, we went to see The Outsiders. Chat, it was incredible. (Which maybe should go without saying given that it won the Tony for best musical.) But wow. I loved the book and the movie as a kid. But this hit me on an entirely other level. I’m not really a cries-at-movies (or especially at musicals) kind of person but I was wiping my eyes for much of the second act. So were very many people sitting around me. Anyway. If you’re in New York, or if it comes to your city, go see it. And until then, the soundtrack is pretty amazing on its own. (Here’s a great example.)
Kessel Okinga-Koumu paced around a crowded hallway. It was her first time presenting at the Deep Learning Indaba, she told the crowd gathered to hear her, filled with researchers from Africa’s machine-learning community. The annual weeklong conference (‘Indaba’ is a Zulu word for gathering), was held most recently in September at Amadou Mahtar Mbow University in Dakar, Senegal. It attracted over 700 attendees to hear about—and debate—the potential of Africa-centric AI and how it’s being deployed in agriculture, education, health care, and other critical sectors of the continent’s economy.
A 28-year-old computer science student at the University of the Western Cape in Cape Town, South Africa, Okinga-Koumu spoke about how she’s tackling a common problem: the lack of lab equipment at her university. Lecturers have long been forced to use chalkboards or printed 2D representations of equipment to simulate practical lessons that need microscopes, centrifuges, or other expensive tools. “In some cases, they even ask students to draw the equipment during practical lessons,” she lamented.
Okinga-Koumu pulled a phone from the pocket of her blue jeans and opened a prototype web app she’s built. Using VR and AI features, the app allows students to simulate using the necessary lab equipment—exploring 3D models of the tools in a real-world setting, like a classroom or lab. “Students could have detailed VR of lab equipment, making their hands-on experience more effective,” she said.
Established in 2017, the Deep Learning Indaba now has chapters in 47 of the 55 African nations and aims to boost AI development across the continent by providing training and resources to African AI researchers like Okinga-Koumu. Africa is still early in the process of adopting AI technologies, but organizers say the continent is uniquely hospitable to it for several reasons, including a relatively young and increasingly well-educated population, a rapidly growing ecosystem of AI startups, and lots of potential consumers.
“The building and ownership of AI solutions tailored to local contexts is crucial for equitable development,” says Shakir Mohamed, a senior research scientist at Google DeepMind and cofounder of the organization sponsoring the conference. Africa, more than other continents in the world, can address specific challenges with AI and will benefit immensely from its young talent, he says: “There is amazing expertise everywhere across the continent.”
However, researchers’ ambitious efforts to develop AI tools that answer the needs of Africans face numerous hurdles. The biggest are inadequate funding and poor infrastructure. Not only is it very expensive to build AI systems, but research to provide AI training data in original African languages has been hamstrung by poor financing of linguistics departments at many African universities and the fact that citizens increasingly don’t speak or write local languages themselves. Limited internet access and a scarcity of domestic data centers also mean that developers might not be able to deploy cutting-edge AI capabilities.
Complicating this further is a lack of overarching policies or strategies for harnessing AI’s immense benefits—and regulating its downsides. While there are various draft policy documents, researchers are in conflict over a continent-wide strategy. And they disagree about which policies would most benefit Africa, not the wealthy Western governments and corporations that have often funded technological innovation.
Taken together, researchers worry, these issues will hold Africa’s AI sector back and hamper its efforts to pave its own pathway in the global AI race.
On the cusp of change
Africa’s researchers are already making the most of generative AI’s impressive capabilities. In South Africa, for instance, to help address the HIV epidemic, scientists have designed an app called Your Choice, powered by an LLM-based chatbot that interacts with people to obtain their sexual history without stigma or discrimination. In Kenya, farmers are using AI apps to diagnose diseases in crops and increase productivity. And in Nigeria, Awarri, a newly minted AI startup, is trying to build the country’s first large language model, with the endorsement of the government, so that Nigerian languages can be integrated into AI tools.
The Deep Learning Indaba is another sign of how Africa’s AI research scene is starting to flourish. At the Dakar meeting, researchers presented 150 posters and 62 papers. Of those, 30 will be published in top-tier journals, according to Mohamed.
Meanwhile, an analysis of 1,646 publications in AI between 2013 and 2022 found “a significant increase in publications” from Africa. And Masakhane, a cousin organization to Deep Learning Indaba that pushes for natural-language-processing research in African languages, has released over 400 open-source models and 20 African-language data sets since it was founded in 2018.
“These metrics speak a lot to the capacity building that’s happening,” says Kathleen Siminyu, a computer scientist from Kenya, who researches NLP tools for her native Kiswahili. “We’re starting to see a critical mass of people having basic foundational skills. They then go on to specialize.”
She adds: “It’s like a wave that cannot be stopped.”
Khadija Ba, a Senegalese entrepreneur and investor at the pan-African VC fund P1 Ventures who was at this year’s conference, says that she sees African AI startups as particularly attractive because their local approaches have potential to be scaled for the global market. African startups often build solutions in the absence of robust infrastructure, yet “these innovations work efficiently, making them adaptable to other regions facing similar challenges,” she says.
In recent years, funding in Africa’s tech ecosystem has picked up: VC investment totaled $4.5 billion last year, more than double what it was just five years ago, according to a report by the African Private Capital Association. And this October, Google announced a $5.8 million commitment to support AI training initiatives in Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. But researchers say local funding remains sluggish. Take the Google-backed fund rolled out, also in October, in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. It will pay out $6,000 each to 10 AI startups—not even enough to purchase the equipment needed to power their systems.
Lilian Wanzare, a lecturer and NLP researcher at Maseno University in Kisumu, Kenya, bridles at African governments’ lackadaisical support for local AI initiatives and complains as well that the government charges exorbitant fees for access to publicly generated data, hindering data sharing and collaboration. “[We] researchers are just blocked,” she says. “The government is saying they’re willing to support us, but the structures have not been put in place for us.”
Language barriers
Researchers who want to make Africa-centric AI don’t face just insufficient local investment and inaccessible data. There are major linguistic challenges, too.
During one discussion at the Indaba, Ife Adebara, a Nigerian computational linguist, posed a question: “How many people can write a bachelor’s thesis in their native African language?”
Zero hands went up.
Then the audience disintegrated into laughter.
Africans want AI to speak their local languages, but many Africans cannot speak and write in these languages themselves, Adebara said.
Although Africa accounts for one-third of all languages in the world, many oral languages are slowly disappearing, their population of native speakers declining. And LLMs developed by Western-based tech companies fail to serve African languages; they don’t understand locally relevant context and culture.
For Adebara and others researching NLP tools, the lack of people who have the ability to read and write in African languages poses a major hurdle to development of bespoke AI-enabled technologies. “Without literacy in our local languages, the future of AI in Africa is not as bright as we think,” she says.
On top of all that, there’s little machine-readable data for African languages. One reason is that linguistic departments in public universities are poorly funded, Adebara says, limiting linguists’ participation in work that could create such data and benefit AI development.
This year, she and her colleagues established EqualyzAI, a for-profit company seeking to preserve African languages through digital technology. They have built voice tools and AI models, covering about 517 African languages.
Lelapa AI, a software company that’s building data sets and NLP tools for African languages, is also trying to address these language-specific challenges. Its cofounders met in 2017 at the first Deep Learning Indaba and launched the company in 2022. In 2023, it released its first AI tool, Vulavula, a speech-to-text program that recognizes several languages spoken in South Africa.
This year, Lelapa AI released InkubaLM, a first-of-its-kind small language model that currently supports a range of African languages: IsiXhosa, Yoruba, Swahili, IsiZulu, and Hausa. InkubaLM can answer questions and perform tasks like English translation and sentiment analysis. In tests, it performed as well as some larger models. But it’s still in early stages. The hope is that InkubaLM will someday power Vulavula, says Jade Abbott, cofounder and chief operating officer of Lelapa AI.
“It’s the first iteration of us really expressing our long-term vision of what we want, and where we see African AI in the future,” Abbott says. “What we’re really building is a small language model that punches above its weight.”
InkubaLM is trained on two open-source data sets with 1.9 billion tokens, built and curated by Masakhane and other African developers who worked with real people in local communities. They paid native speakers of languages to attend writing workshops to create data for their model.
Fundamentally, this approach will always be better, says Wanzare, because it’s informed by people who represent the language and culture.
A clash over strategy
Another issue that came up again and again at the Indaba was that Africa’s AI scene lacks the sort of regulation and support from governments that you find elsewhere in the world—in Europe, the US, China, and, increasingly, the Middle East.
Of the 55 African nations, only seven—Senegal, Egypt, Mauritius, Rwanda, Algeria, Nigeria, and Benin—have developed their own formal AI strategies. And many of those are still in the early stages.
A major point of tension at the Indaba, though, was the regulatory framework that will govern the approach to AI across the entire continent. In March, the African Union Development Agency published a white paper, developed over a three-year period, that lays out this strategy. The 200-page document includes recommendations for industry codes and practices, standards to assess and benchmark AI systems, and a blueprint of AI regulations for African nations to adopt. The hope is that it will be endorsed by the heads of African governments in February 2025 and eventually passed by the African Union.
But in July, the African Union Commission in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, another African governing body that wields more power than the development agency, released a rival continental AI strategy—a 66-page document that diverges from the initial white paper.
It’s unclear what’s behind the second strategy, but Seydina Ndiaye, a program director at the Cheikh Hamidou Kane Digital University in Dakar who helped draft the development agency’s white paper, claims it was drafted by a tech lobbyist from Switzerland. The commission’s strategy calls for African Union member states to declare AI a national priority, promote AI startups, and develop regulatory frameworks to address safety and security challenges. But Ndiaye expressed concerns that the document does not reflect the perspectives, aspirations, knowledge, and work of grassroots African AI communities. “It’s a copy-paste of what’s going on outside the continent,” he says.
Vukosi Marivate, a computer scientist at the University of Pretoria in South Africa who helped found the Deep Learning Indaba and is known as an advocate for the African machine-learning movement, expressed fury over this turn of events at the conference. “These are things we shouldn’t accept,” he declared. The room full of data wonks, linguists, and international funders brimmed with frustration. But Marivate encouraged the group to forge ahead with building AI that benefits Africans: “We don’t have to wait for the rules to act right,” he said.
Barbara Glover, a program manager for the African Union Development Agency, acknowledges that AI researchers are angry and frustrated. There’s been a push to harmonize the two continental AI strategies, but she says the process has been fractious: “That engagement didn’t go as envisioned.” Her agency plans to keep its own version of the continental AI strategy, Glover says, adding that it was developed by African experts rather than outsiders. “We are capable, as Africans, of driving our own AI agenda,” she says.
This all speaks to a broader tension over foreign influence in the African AI scene, one that goes beyond any single strategic document. Mirroring the skepticism toward the African Union Commission strategy, critics say the Deep Learning Indaba is tainted by its reliance on funding from big foreign tech companies; roughly 50% of its $500,000 annual budget comes from international donors and the rest from corporations like Google DeepMind, Apple, Open AI, and Meta. They argue that this cash could pollute the Indaba’s activities and influence the topics and speakers chosen for discussion.
But Mohamed, the Indaba cofounder who is a researcher at Google DeepMind, says that “almost all that goes back to our beneficiaries across the continent,” and the organization helps connect them to training opportunities in tech companies. He says it benefits from some of its cofounders’ ties with these companies but that they do not set the agenda.
Ndiaye says that the funding is necessary to keep the conference going. “But we need to have more African governments involved,” he says.
To Timnit Gebru, founder and executive director at the nonprofit Distributed AI Research Institute (DAIR), which supports equitable AI research in Africa, the angst about foreign funding for AI development comes down to skepticism of exploitative, profit-driven international tech companies. “Africans [need] to do something different and not replicate the same issues we’re fighting against,” Gebru says. She warns about the pressure to adopt “AI for everything in Africa,” adding that there’s “a lot of push from international development organizations” to use AI as an “antidote” for all Africa’s challenges.
Siminyu, who is also a researcher at DAIR, agrees with that view. She hopes that African governments will fund and work with people in Africa to build AI tools that reach underrepresented communities—tools that can be used in positive ways and in a context that works for Africans. “We should be afforded the dignity of having AI tools in a way that others do,” she says.
IG chief Adam Mosseri says that this does not happen.