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Donald Trump’s decisive victory is a stunning setback for climate change.

The Republican president-elect’s return to the White House means the US is going to squander precious momentum, unraveling hard-won policy progress that was just beginning to pay off, all for the second time in less than a decade. 

It comes at a moment when the world can’t afford to waste time, with nations far off track from any emissions trajectories that would keep our ecosystems stable and our communities safe. Under the policies in place today, the planet is already set to warm by more than 3 °C over preindustrial levels in the coming decades.

Trump could push the globe into even more dangerous terrain, by defanging President Joe Biden’s signature climate laws. In fact, a second Trump administration could boost greenhouse-gas emissions by 4 billion tons through 2030 alone, according to an earlier analysis by Carbon Brief, a well-regarded climate news and data site. That will exacerbate the dangers of heat waves, floods, wildfires, droughts, and famine and increase deaths and disease from air pollution, inflicting some $900 million in climate damages around the world, Carbon Brief found.

I started as the climate editor at MIT Technology Review just as Trump came into office the last time. Much of the early job entailed covering his systematic unraveling of the modest climate policy and progress that President Barack Obama had managed to achieve. I fear it will be far worse this time, as Trump ambles into office feeling empowered and aggrieved, and ready to test the rule of law and crack down on dissent. 

This time his administration will be staffed all the more by loyalists and idealogues, who have already made plans to force civil servants with expertise and experience from federal agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency. He’ll be backed by a Supreme Court that he moved well to the right, and which has already undercut landmark environmental doctrines and weakened federal regulatory agencies. 

This time the setbacks will sting more, too, because the US did finally manage to pass real, substantive climate policy, through the slimmest of congressional margins. The Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law allocated massive amounts of government funding to accelerating the shift to low-emissions industries and rebuilding the US manufacturing base around a clean-energy economy. 

Trump has made clear he will strive to repeal as many of these provisions as he can, tempered perhaps only by Republicans who recognize that these laws are producing revenue and jobs in their districts. Meanwhile, throughout the prolonged presidential campaign, Trump or his surrogates pledged to boost oil and gas production, eliminate federal support for electric vehicles, end pollution rules for power plants, and remove the US from the Paris climate agreement yet again. Each of those goals stands in direct opposition to the deep, rapid emissions cuts now necessary to prevent the planet from tipping past higher and higher temperature thresholds.

Project 2025, considered a blueprint for the early days of a second Trump administration despite his insistence to the contrary, calls for dismantling or downsizing federal institutions including the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. That could cripple the nation’s ability to forecast, track, or respond to storms, floods, and fires like those that have devastated communities in recent months.

Observers I’ve spoken to fear that the Trump administration will also return the Department of Energy, which under Biden had evolved its mission toward developing low-emissions technologies, to the primary task of helping companies dig up more fossil fuels.

The US election could create global ripples as well, and very soon. US negotiators will meet with their counterparts at the annual UN climate conference that kicks off next week. With Trump set to move back into the White House in January, they will have little credibility or leverage to nudge other nations to step up their commitments to reducing emissions. 

But those are just some of the direct ways that a second Trump administration will enfeeble the nation’s ability to drive down emissions and counter the growing dangers of climate change. He also has considerable power to stall the economy and sow international chaos amid escalating conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. 

Trump’s eagerness to enact tariffs, slash government spending, and deport major portions of the workforce may stunt growth, drive up inflation, and chill investment. All that would make it far more difficult for companies to raise the capital and purchase the components needed to build anything in the US, whether that means wind turbines, solar farms, and seawalls or buildings, bridges, and data centers. 

view from behind Trump on stage election night 2024 with press and crowd
President-elect Donald Trump speaks at an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida.
WIN MCNAMEE/GETTY IMAGES

His clumsy handling of the economy and international affairs may also help China extend its dominance in producing and selling the components that are crucial to the energy transition, including batteries, EVs, and solar panels, to customers around the globe.

If one job of a commentator is to find some perspective in difficult moments, I admit I’m mostly failing in this one.

The best I can do is to say that there will be some meaningful lines of defense. For now, at least, state leaders and legislatures can continue to pass and implement stronger climate rules. Other nations could step up their efforts to cut emissions and assert themselves as global leaders on climate. 

Private industry will likely continue to invest in and build businesses in climate tech and clean energy, since solar, wind, batteries, and EVs have proved themselves as competitive industries. And technological progress can occur no matter who is sitting in the round room on Pennsylvania Avenue, since researchers continue striving to develop cleaner, cheaper ways of producing our energy, food, and goods.

By any measure, the job of addressing climate change is now much harder. Nothing, however, has changed about the stakes. 

Our world doesn’t end if we surpass 2 °C, 2.5 °C, or even 3 °C, but it will steadily become a more dangerous and erratic place. Every tenth of a degree remains worth fighting for—whether two, four, or a dozen years from now—because every bit of warming that nations pull together to prevent eases future suffering somewhere.

So as the shock wears off and the despair begins to lift, the core task before us remains the same: to push for progress, whenever, wherever, and however we can. 

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This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here.

Voters have elected Donald Trump to a second term in the White House.

In the days leading up to the election, I kept thinking about what four years means for climate change right now. We’re at a critical moment that requires decisive action to rapidly slash greenhouse-gas emissions from power plants, transportation, industry, and the rest of the economy if we’re going to achieve our climate goals.

The past four years have seen the US take climate action seriously, working with the international community and pumping money into solutions. Now, we’re facing a period where things are going to be very different. A Trump presidency will have impacts far beyond climate, but for the sake of this newsletter, we’ll stay focused on what four years means in the climate fight as we start to make sense of this next chapter. 

Joe Biden arguably did more to combat climate change than any other American president. One of his first actions in office was rejoining the Paris climate accord—Trump pulled out of the international agreement to fight climate change during his first term in office. Biden then quickly set a new national goal to cut US carbon emissions in half, relative to their peak, by 2030.

The Environmental Protection Agency rolled out rules for power plants to slash pollution that harms both human health and the climate. The agency also announced new regulations for vehicle emissions to push the country toward EVs.

And the cornerstone of the Biden years has been unprecedented climate investment. A trio of laws—the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act—pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure and research, much of it on climate.

Now, this ship is about to make a quick turn. Donald Trump has regularly dismissed the threat of climate change and promised throughout the campaign to counter some of Biden’s key moves.

We can expect to see a dramatic shift in how the US talks about climate on the international stage. Trump has vowed to once again withdraw from the Paris agreement. Things are going to be weird at the annual global climate talks that kick off next week.

We can also expect to see efforts to undo some of Biden’s key climate actions, most centrally the Inflation Reduction Act, as my colleague James Temple covered earlier this year.

What, exactly, Trump can do will depend on whether Republicans take control of both houses of Congress. A clean sweep would open up more lanes for targeting legislation passed under Biden. (As of sending this email, Republicans have secured enough seats to control the Senate, but the House is uncertain and could be for days or even weeks.)

I don’t think the rug will be entirely pulled out from under the IRA—portions of the investment from the law are beginning to pay off, and the majority of the money has gone to Republican districts. But there will certainly be challenges to pieces, especially the EV tax credits, which Trump has been laser-focused on during the campaign.

This all adds up to a very different course on climate than what many had hoped we might see for the rest of this decade.

A Trump presidency could add 4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere by 2030 over what was expected from a second Biden term, according to an analysis published in April by the website Carbon Brief (this was before Biden dropped out of the race). That projection sees emissions under Trump dropping by 28% below the peak by the end of the decade—nowhere near the 50% target set by Biden at the beginning of his term.

The US, which is currently the world’s second-largest greenhouse-gas emitter and has added more climate pollution to the atmosphere than any other nation, is now very unlikely to hit Biden’s 2030 goal. That’s basically the final nail in the coffin for efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) over preindustrial levels.

In the days, weeks, and years ahead we’ll be covering what this change will mean for efforts to combat climate change and to protect the most vulnerable from the dangerous world we’re marching toward—indeed, already living in. Stay tuned for more from us.


Now read the rest of The Spark

Related reading

Trump wants to unravel Biden’s landmark climate law. Read our coverage from earlier this year to see what’s most at risk

It’s been two years since the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, ushering in hundreds of billions of dollars in climate investment. Read more about the key provisions in this newsletter from August

silhouette of a cow with letters C,T,G,A floating inside in brilliant orange light

MIT TECHNOLOGY REVIEW | GETTY

Another thing

Jennifer Doudna, one of the inventors of the gene-editing tool CRISPR, says the tech could be a major tool to help address climate change and deal with the growing risks of our changing world. 

The hope is that CRISPR’s ability to chop out specific pieces of DNA will make it faster and easier to produce climate-resilient crops and livestock, while avoiding the pitfalls of previous attempts to tweak the genomes of plants and animals. Read the full story from my colleague James Temple.

Keeping up with climate  

Startup Redoxblox is building a technology that’s not exactly a thermal battery, but it’s not not a thermal battery either. The company raised just over $30 million to build its systems, which store energy in both heat and chemical bonds. (Heatmap)

It’s been a weird fall in the US Northeast—a rare drought has brought a string of wildfires, and New York City is seeing calls to conserve water. (New York Times)

It’s been bumpy skies this week for electric-plane startups. Beta Technologies raised over $300 million in funding, while Lilium may be filing for insolvency soon. (Canary Media)

→ The runway for futuristic electric planes is still a long one. (MIT Technology Review)

Meta’s plan to build a nuclear-powered AI data center has been derailed by a rare species of bee living on land earmarked for the project. (Financial Times)

The atmospheric concentration of methane—a powerful greenhouse gas—has been mysteriously climbing since 2007, and that growth nearly doubled in 2020. Now scientists may have finally figured out the culprits: microbes in wetlands that are getting warmer and wetter. (Washington Post)

Greenhouse-gas emissions from the European Union fell by 8% in 2023. The drop is thanks to efforts to shut down coal-fired power plants and generate more electricity from renewables like solar and wind. (The Guardian)

Four electric school buses could help officials figure out how to charge future bus fleets. A project in Brooklyn will aim to use onsite renewables and smart charging to control the costs and grid stress of EV charging depots. (Canary Media)

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The world’s first barcode, designed in 1948, took more than 25 years to make it out of the lab and onto a retail package. Since then, the barcode has done much more than make grocery checkouts faster—it has remade our understanding of how physical objects can be identified and tracked, creating a new pace and set of expectations for the speed and reliability of modern commerce.

Nearly eighty years later, a new iteration of that technology, which encodes data in two dimensions, is poised to take the stage. Today’s 2D barcode is not only out of the lab but “open to a world of possibility,” says Carrie Wilkie, senior vice president of standards and technology at GS1 US.

2D barcodes encode substantially more information than their 1D counterparts. This enables them to link physical objects to a wide array of digital resources. For consumers, 2D barcodes can provide a wealth of product information, from food allergens, expiration dates, and safety recalls to detailed medication use instructions, coupons, and product offers. For businesses, 2D barcodes can enhance operational efficiencies, create traceability at the lot or item level, and drive new forms of customer engagement.

An array of 2D barcode types supports the information needs of a variety of industries. The GS1 DataMatrix, for example, is used on medication or medical devices, encoding expiration dates, batch and lot numbers, and FDA National Drug Codes. The QR Code is familiar to consumers who have used one to open a website from their phone. Adding a GS1 Digital Link URI to a QR Code enables it to serve two purposes: as both a traditional barcode for supply chain operations, enabling tracking throughout the supply chain and price lookup at checkout, and also as a consumer-facing link to digital information, like expiry dates and serial numbers.

Regardless of type, however, all 2D barcodes require a business ecosystem backed by data. To capture new value from advanced barcodes, organizations must supply and manage clean, accurate, and interoperable data around their products and materials. For 2D barcodes to deliver on their potential, businesses will need to collaborate with partners, suppliers, and customers and commit to common data standards across the value chain.

Driving the demand for 2D barcodes

Shifting to 2D barcodes—and enabling the data ecosystems behind them—will require investment by business. Consumer engagement, compliance, and sustainability are among the many factors driving this transition.

Real-time consumer engagement: Today’s customers want to feel connected to the brands they interact with and purchase from. Information is a key element of that engagement and empowerment. “When I think about customer satisfaction,” says Leslie Hand, group vice president for IDC Retail Insights, “I’m thinking about how I can provide more information that allows them to make better decisions about their own lives and the things they buy.”

2D barcodes can help by connecting consumers to online content in real time. “If, by using a 2D barcode, you have the capability to connect to a consumer in a specific region, or a specific store, and you have the ability to provide information to that consumer about the specific product in their hand, that can be a really powerful consumer engagement tool,” says Dan Hardy, director of customer operations for HanesBrands, Inc. “2D barcodes can bring brand and product connectivity directly to an individual consumer, and create an interaction that supports your brand message at an individual consumer/product level.”

Download the full report.

This content was produced by Insights, the custom content arm of MIT Technology Review. It was not written by MIT Technology Review’s editorial staff.

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This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.

Life-seeking, ice-melting robots could punch through Europa’s icy shell

At long last, NASA’s Europa Clipper mission is on its way. It launched on October 14 and is now en route to its target: Jupiter’s ice-covered moon Europa, whose frozen shell almost certainly conceals a warm saltwater ocean. When the spacecraft gets there, it will conduct dozens of close flybys in order to determine what that ocean is like and, crucially, where it might be hospitable to life.

Europa Clipper is still years away from its destination—it is not slated to reach the Jupiter system until 2030. But that hasn’t stopped engineers and scientists from working on what would come next if the results are promising: a mission capable of finding evidence of life itself. Read the full story.

— Robin George Andrews

GMOs could reboot chestnut trees

Living as long as a thousand years, the American chestnut tree once dominated parts of the Eastern forest canopy, with many Native American nations relying on them for food. But by 1950, the tree had largely succumbed to a fungal blight probably introduced by Japanese chestnuts.

As recently as last year, it seemed the 35-year effort to revive the American chestnut might grind to a halt. Now, American Castanea, a new biotech startup, has created more than 2,500 transgenic chestnut seedlings— likely the first genetically modified trees to be considered for federal regulatory approval as a tool for ecological restoration. Read the full story.

—Anya Kamenetz

This piece is from the latest print issue of MIT Technology Review, which is all about the weird and wonderful world of food. If you don’t already, subscribe to receive future copies once they land.

MIT Technology Review Narrated: Why Congo’s most famous national park is betting big on crypto

In an attempt to protect its forests and famous wildlife, Virunga has become the first national park to run a Bitcoin mine. But some are wondering what crypto has to do with conservation.

This is our latest story to be turned into a MIT Technology Review Narrated podcast. In partnership with News Over Audio, we’ll be making a selection of our stories available, each one read by a professional voice actor. You’ll be able to listen to them on the go or download them to listen to offline.

We’re publishing a new story each week on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, including some taken from our most recent print magazine. Just navigate to MIT Technology Review Narrated on either platform, and follow us to get all our new content as it’s released.

The must-reads

I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.

1 Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election 
He’s the first president with a criminal conviction and two impeachments under his belt. (WP $)
+ The crypto industry is rejoicing at the news as bitcoin leapt to a record high. (NYT $)
+ In fact, a blockchain entrepreneur won the Ohio Senate race. (CNBC)
+ What comes next is anyone’s guess. (The Atlantic $)

2 Trump’s victory is music to Elon Musk’s ears
He’s been promised a new role as head of a new Department of Government Efficiency. (FT $)
+ Musk is being sued over his $1 million giveaways during the election campaign. (Reuters)
+ The billionaire used X as his own personal megaphone to stir up dissent. (The Atlantic $)

3 Abortion rights are now under further threat 
Particularly pills sent by mail. (Vox)
+ Trump’s approach to discussing abortion has been decidedly mixed. (Bloomberg $)

4 Trump could be TikTok’s last hope for survival in the US
Now he’s stopped threatening to ban it, that is. (The Information $)

5 Perplexity is approaching a $9 billion valuation
Thanks to the company’s fourth round of funding this year. (WSJ $)+ Microsoft has reportedly expressed interest in acquiring the AI search startup. (The Information $)

6 The iPhone could be Apple’s last major cash cow
It’s acknowledged that its other devices may never reach the same heady heights. (FT $)
+ Nvidia has overtaken Apple as the world’s largest company. (Bloomberg $)

7 The Mozilla Foundation is getting rid of its advocacy division
The team prioritized fighting for a free and open web. (TechCrunch)

8 China plans to slam a spacecraft into an asteroid
Following in the footsteps of America’s successful 2022 mission. (Economist $)
+ Watch the moment NASA’s DART spacecraft crashed into an asteroid. (MIT Technology Review)

9 The Vatican’s anime mascot has been co opted into AI porn
That didn’t take long. (404 Media)

10 Gigantic XXL TVs are the gift of the season
It’s cheaper than ever to fit your home out with a jumbotron screen. (CNN)

Quote of the day

“This is what happens when you mess with the crypto army.”

—Crypto twin Cameron Winklevoss celebrates the victory of blockchain entrepreneur Bernie Moreno, new Senator-elect for Ohio, in a post on X.

The big story

How covid conspiracies led to an alarming resurgence in AIDS denialism

August 2024

Several million people were listening in February when Joe Rogan falsely declared that “party drugs” were an “important factor in AIDS.” His guest on The Joe Rogan Experience, the former evolutionary biology professor turned contrarian podcaster Bret Weinstein, agreed with him.

Speaking to the biggest podcast audience in the world, the two men were promoting dangerous and false ideas—ideas that were in fact debunked and thoroughly disproved decades ago.

These comments and others like them add up to a small but unmistakable resurgence in AIDS denialism—a false collection of theories arguing either that HIV doesn’t cause AIDS or that there’s no such thing as HIV at all.

These claims had largely fallen out of favor until the coronavirus arrived. But, following the pandemic, a renewed suspicion of public health figures and agencies is giving new life to ideas that had long ago been pushed to the margins. Read the full story.

—Anna Merlan

We can still have nice things

A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or tweet ’em at me.)

+ Full Moon Matinee is an amazing crime drama resource on YouTube: complete with some excellent acting courtesy of its host.
+ This is your sign to pick a name and cheer on random strangers during a marathon. I guarantee you’ll make their day!
+ There’s no wrong way to bake a sweet potato, but some ways are better than others.
+ Are you a screen creeper? I know I am.

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At long last, NASA’s Europa Clipper mission is on its way. After overcoming financial and technological hurdles, the $5 billion mission launched on October 14 from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. It is now en route to its target: Jupiter’s ice-covered moon Europa, whose frozen shell almost certainly conceals a warm saltwater ocean. When the spacecraft gets there, it will conduct dozens of close flybys in order to determine what that ocean is like and, crucially, where it might be hospitable to life.

Europa Clipper is still years away from its destination—it is not slated to reach the Jupiter system until 2030. But that hasn’t stopped engineers and scientists from working on what would come next if the results are promising: a mission capable of finding evidence of life itself.

This would likely have three parts: a lander, an autonomous ice-thawing robot, and some sort of self-navigating submersible. Indeed, several groups from multiple countries already have working prototypes of ice-diving robots and smart submersibles that they are set to test in Earth’s own frigid landscapes, from Alaska to Antarctica, in the next few years

But Earth’s oceans are pale simulacra of Europa’s extreme environment. To plumb the ocean of this Jovian moon, engineers must work out a way to get missions to survive a  never-ending rain of radiation that fries electronic circuits. They must also plow through an ice shell that’s at least twice as thick as Mount Everest is tall.

“There are a lot of hard problems that push up right against the limits of what’s possible,” says Richard Camilli, an expert on autonomous robotic systems at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Deep Submergence Laboratory. But you’ve got to start somewhere, and Earth’s seas will be a vital testing ground. 

“We’re doing something nobody has done before,” says Sebastian Meckel, a researcher at the Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen, Germany, who is helping to develop one such futuristic Europan submersible. If the field tests prove successful, the descendants of these aquatic explorers could very well be those that uncover the first evidence of extraterrestrial life.

Hellish descent

The hunt for signs of extraterrestrial biology has predominantly taken place on Mars, our dusty, diminutive planetary neighbor. Looking for life in an icy ocean world is a whole new kettle of (alien) fish, but exobiologists think it’s certainly worth the effort. On Mars, scientists hope to find microscopic evidence of past life on, or just under, its dry and frozen surface. But on Europa, which has a wealth of liquid water (kept warm by Jupiter, whose intense gravity generates plenty of internal friction and heat there), it is possible that microbial critters, and perhaps even more advanced small aquatic animals, may be present in the here and now.

The bad news is that Europa is one of the most hostile environments in the solar system—at least, for anything above its concealed ocean. 

When NASA’s Clipper mission arrives in 2030, it will be confronted by an endless storm of high-energy particles being whipped about by Jupiter’s immense and intense magnetic field, largely raining down onto Europa itself. “It’s enough to kill a regular person within a few seconds,” says Camilli. No human will be present on Europa, but that radiation is so extreme that it can frazzle most electronic circuits. This poses a major hazard for Europa Clipper, which is why it’s doing only quick flybys of the moon as its orbit around Jupiter periodically dips close.

Clipper has an impressive collection of remote sensing tools that will allow it to survey the ocean’s physical and chemical properties, even though it will never touch the moon itself. But almost all scientists expect that uncovering evidence of biological activity will require something to pierce through the ice shell and swim about in the ocean.

A cross-section view of an ice-melting probe called PRIME on the surface of the moon, with small robots being deployed in the subsurface ocean, against the backdrop of Jupiter.
An illustration of two Europa exploration concepts from NASA. An ice-melting probe called PRIME sits on the surface of the moon, with small wedge-shaped SWIM robots deployed below.
NASA/JPL-CALTECH

The good news is that any Europan life-hunting mission has a great technological legacy to build upon. Over the years, scientists have developed and deployed robotic subs that have uncovered a cornucopia of strange life and bizarre geology dwelling in the deep. These include remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), which are often tethered to a surface vessel and are piloted by a person atop the waves, and autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), which freely traverse the seas by themselves before reporting back to the surface.

Hopeful Europa explorers usually cite an AUV as their best option—something that a lander can drop off and let loose in those alien waters that will then return and share its data so it can be beamed back to Earth. “The whole idea is very exciting and cool,” says Bill Chadwick, a research professor at Oregon State University’s Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport, Oregon. But on a technical level, he adds, “it seems incredibly daunting.”

Presuming that a life-finding robotic mission is sufficiently radiation-proof and can land and sit safely on Europa’s surface, it would then encounter the colossal obstacle that is Europa’s ice shell, estimated to be 10 to 15 miles thick. Something is going to have to drill or melt its way through all that before reaching the ocean, a process that will likely take several years. “And there’s no guarantee that the ice is going to be static as you’re going through,” says Camilli. Thanks to gravitational tugs from Jupiter, and the internal heat they generate, Europa is a geologically tumultuous world, with ice constantly fragmenting, convulsing and even erupting on its surface. “How do you deal with that?”

Europa’s lack of an atmosphere is also an issue. Say your robot does reach the ocean below all that ice. That’s great, but if the thawed tunnel isn’t sealed shut behind the robot, then the higher pressure of the oceanic depths will come up against a vacuum high above. “If you drill through and you don’t have some kind of pressure control, you can get the equivalent of a blowout, like an oil well,” says Camilli—and your robot could get rudely blasted into space.

Even if you manage to pass through that gauntlet, you must then make sure the diver maintains a link with the surface lander, and with Earth. “What would be worse than finally finding life somewhere else and not being able to tell anyone about it?” says Morgan Cable, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).

Pioneering probes

What these divers will do when they breach Europa’s ocean almost doesn’t matter at this stage. The scientific analysis is currently secondary to the primary problem: Can robots actually get through that ice shell and survive the journey? 

A simple way to start is with a cryobot—a melt probe that can gradually thaw its way through the shell, pulled down by gravity. That’s the idea behind NASA’s Probe using Radioisotopes for Icy Moons Exploration, or PRIME. As the name suggests, this cryobot would use the heat from the radioactive decay of an element like plutonium-238 to melt ice. If you know the thickness of the ice shell, you know exactly how many tablespoons of radioactive matter to bring aboard. 

Once it gets through the ice, the cryobot could unfurl a suite of scientific investigation tools, or perhaps deploy an independent submersible that could work in tandem with the cryobot—all while making sure none of that radioactive matter contaminates the ocean. NASA’s Sensing with Independent Micro-Swimmers project, for example, has sketched out plans to deploy a school of wedge-shaped robots—a fleet of sleuths that would work together to survey the depths before reporting back to base.

These concepts remain hypothetical. To get an idea of what’s technically possible, several teams are building and field-testing their own prototype ice divers. 

One of the furthest-along efforts is the Ocean Worlds Reconnaissance and Characterization of Astrobiological Analogs project, or ORCAA, led by JPL. After some preliminary fieldwork, the group is now ready for prime time; next year, a team will set up camp on Alaska’s expansive Juneau Icefield and deploy an eight-foot tall, two-inch wide cryobot. Its goal will be to get through 1,000 feet of ice, through a glasslike upper layer, down into ancient ices, and ultimately into a subglacial lake.

A shows two team members near a supraglacial lake (a body of water on top of the glacier), where biologists could take water samples and compare them to samples taken from the borehole.
ORCAA team members stand by a lake on top of a glacier during Alaska fieldwork.
NASA/JPL-CALTECH

This cryobot won’t be powered by radioactive matter. “I don’t see NASA and the Department of Energy being game for that yet,” says Samuel Howell, an ocean worlds scientist at JPL and the ORCAA principal investigator. Instead, it will be electrically heated (with power delivered via a tether to the surface), and that heat will pump warm water out in front of the cryobot, melting the ice and allowing it to migrate downward.

The cryobot will be permanently tethered to the surface, using that link to communicate its rudimentary scientific data and return samples of water back to a team of scientists at base camp atop the ice. Those scientists will act as if they are an astrobiology suite of instruments similar to what might eventually be fitted on a cryobot sent to Europa. 

The 2025 field experiment “has all the pieces of a cryobot mission,” says Howell. “We’re just duct-taping them together and trying to see what breaks.”

Space scientists and marine engineers are also teaming up at Germany’s Center for Marine Environmental Sciences (MARUM) to forge their own underwater explorer. Under the auspices of the Technologies for Rapid Ice Penetration and Subglacial Lake Exploration project, or TRIPLE, they are developing an ice-thawing cryobot, an astrobiological laboratory suite, and an AUV designed to be used in Earth’s seas and Europa’s ocean.

Their cryobot is somewhat like the one ORCAA is using; it’s an electrically heated thawing machine tethered to the surface. But onboard MARUM’s “ice shuttle” will be a remarkably small AUV, just 20 inches long and four inches wide. The team plans to deploy both on the Antarctic ice shelf, near the Neumayer III station, in the spring of 2026. 

Model of the miniature underwater vehicle being developed at MARUM with partners from industry. It will have a diameter of around ten and a length of about 50 centimeters.
Germany’s Center for Marine Environmental Sciences is developing a small AUV that it plans to deploy in Antarctica in 2026.
MARUM – CENTER FOR MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, UNIVERSITY OF BREMEN.

From a surface station, the ice shuttle will thaw its way down through the ice shell, aiming to reach the bitingly cold water hundreds of feet below. Once it does so, a hatch will open and the tiny AUV will be dropped off to swim about (on a probably preprogrammed route), wirelessly communicating with the ice shuttle throughout. It will take a sample of the water, return to the ice shuttle, dock with it, and recharge its batteries. For the field test, the ice shuttle, which will have some rudimentary scientific tools, will return the water sample back to the surface for analysis; for the space mission itself, the idea is that an array of instruments onboard the shuttle will examine that water.

As with ORCAA, the scientific aspect of this is not paramount. “What we’re focusing on now is form and function,” says project member Ralf Bachmayer, a marine robotics researcher at MARUM. Can their prototype Europan explorer get down to the hidden waters, deploy a scout, and return to base intact?

Bachmayer can’t wait to find out. “For engineers, it’s a dream come true to work on this project,” he says.

Swarms and serpents

A submersible-like AUV isn’t the only way scientists are thinking of investigating icy oceanic moons. JPL’s Exobiology Extant Life Surveyor, or EELS, involves a working, wriggling, serpentine robot inspired by the desire to crawl through the vents of Saturn’s own water-laden moon, Enceladus. The robotic snake has already been field-tested; it recently navigated through the icy crevasses and moulins of the Athabasca Glacier in Alberta, Canada.

Although an AUV-like cryobot mission is likely to be the first explorer of an icy oceanic moon, “a crazy idea like a robotic snake could work,” says Cable, the science lead for EELS. She hopes the project is “opening the eyes of scientists and engineers alike to new possibilities when it comes to accessing the hard-to-reach, and often most scientifically compelling, places of planetary environments.”

It might be that we’ll need such creative, and perhaps unexpected, designs to find our way to Europa’s ocean. Space agencies exploring the solar system have achieved remarkable things, but “NASA has never flown an aqueous instrument before,” says Howell.

But one day, thanks to this work, it might—and, just maybe, one of them will find life blooming in Europa’s watery shadows.

Robin George Andrews is an award-winning science journalist and doctor of volcanoes based in London. He regularly writes about the Earth, space, and planetary sciences, and is the author of two critically acclaimed books: Super Volcanoes (2021) and How To Kill An Asteroid (October 2024).

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