Bitcoin looks set for a bearish open to mark the last trading day of March and possibly the weakest Q1 performance since 2018. 

Crypto and stock traders’ anxiety over US President Donald Trump’s fresh wave of 25% tariffs on cars imported to the US, the threat of tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry is clearly reflected in BTC’s current downside. Trump’s frequent references to April 2 being “Liberation Day” (the day when an apparent number for “reciprocal tariffs” will be assigned to various countries) also has shaken traders’ confidence. 

At the time of publishing, stock futures have already slipped into the red, with the DOW futures shedding 206 points and the S&P 500 futures down 0.56%. As expected, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price moved in tandem with equities markets, slipping to $81,656 on March 30 and locking in a 7th consecutive day of lower lows. 

After a tumultuous quarter, equities markets look set to close down for the month, with the S&P 500 down 6.3% and the Nasdaq and DOW each registering 8.1% and 5.2% respective losses. 

Bitcoin’s steady decline is a combination of weak demand in spot markets and clear derisking from traders who are reluctant to open fresh positions in BTC’s futures markets. 

Last week’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showed a higher-than-anticipated uptick in inflation, and March consumer confidence data from the Conference Board showed the monthly confidence index — a metric that reflects respondents’ expectation for income, business and job prospects — at a 12-year low. 

Related: Bitcoin bottom ‘likely’ at $80K, opening door for TON, CRO, MNT and RENDER to rally

Recession odds also continue to rise, with a recent report from Goldman Sachs raising the 12-month recession probability from their previous 20% to 35%. In the report, Goldman Sachs’ analysts said, 

“The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth beeline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”    

Does Bitcoin’s downside have a silver lining? 

While many crypto analysts have publicly revised their bullish six-figure-plus BTC price estimates and now forecast a revisit to Bitcoin’s swing lows in the mid $70,000 range, institutional investors continue to buy, and net inflows to the spot ETFs remain positive. 

On March 30, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor took to X and posted his famous orange dots Bitcoin chart, saying, 

“Needs even more Orange.” 

Data from CryptoQuant also shows Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses continuing to rise throughout the month. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

A quick overview of Meta’s ever-growing ad empire.

New insights into the value of discussion on Reddit.

You’ll be able to choose from Meta’s full music library to accompany your WhatsApp Status posts. 

Insights into what younger users on X are engaging with. 

Billionaire investor Elon Musk has sold his social media platform X to his AI startup xAI, sparking controversy as it coincides with a US judge rejecting his bid to dismiss a lawsuit tied to the social media platform.

The transfer of ownership of X to xAI on March 28 means that the class-action lawsuit against Musk — accusing him of defrauding former Twitter shareholders by delaying the disclosure of his initial investment in the social media platform — has become “a whole lot spicer,” Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran said in a March 28 X post.

Acquisition may open up xAI to more ‘exposure’

On the same day that Musk said “xAI has acquired X in an all-stock transaction,” a US judge reportedly rejected Musk’s attempt to dismiss the lawsuit. Cochran said it has “opened up his AI entity to exposure here too, and it’s a much bigger pie.”

Musk said the deal values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, factoring in $12 billion in debt from the $45 billion valuation. He originally bought X, formerly Twitter, for around $44 billion in April 2022.

“xAI and X’s futures are intertwined. Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent,” Musk said.

“This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI’s advanced AI capability and expertise with X’s massive reach,” he said, adding:

“This will allow us to build a platform that doesn’t just reflect the world but actively accelerates human progress.”

However, Cochran claimed that “Musk used his pumped up xAI stock to pay multiple times over value for X, but still take an $11B loss on the transaction.” He said that Musk is “screwing over xAI investors, and X investors” and was executed to sell user data to xAI.

Related: Elon Musk’s ‘government efficiency’ team turns its sights to SEC — Report

xAI is best known for its AI chatbot “Grok” which is built into the X platform. When Musk released it in November 2023, he claimed it could outperform OpenAI’s first iteration of ChatGPT in several academic tests.

Musk explained at the time that the motivation behind building Grok is to create AI tools equipped to assist humanity by empowering research and innovation.

While Cochran said that Grok being valued at $80 billion is an “insanely dumb valuation,” crypto developer “Keef” disagrees. Keef said, “This is shady all around, but given the day, Grok is genuinely probably the top model for various tasks.”

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